William Wragg – 2016 Parliamentary Question to the Department for Education

The below Parliamentary question was asked by William Wragg on 2016-06-06.

To ask the Secretary of State for Education, with reference to the National pupil projections statistics release, published on 22 July 2015, if she will publish updated pupil projection data prior to 23 June 2016.

Nick Gibb

The national pupil projections are only produced for the whole of England and do not break down projected pupil numbers by local education authority or region. They are derived from the 2012-based national population projections for England produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS)[1] who used assumptions which were considered to best reflect demographic patterns at that time.

The ONS uses assumptions on the levels of future fertility, net migration and life expectancy in the production of their population projections. They use central assumptions for the principal projections and alternative high and low assumptions to produce variant projections.

New national pupil projections, based on the ONS’s mid-2014 national population projections[2], are scheduled to be published on 14 July 2016. The timing and content of National Statistics releases are a matter for the Head of Profession for statistics. The month of publication was pre-announced in 2015 and the specific date of publication was pre-announced on 26 February 2016.

[1] Mid-2012 ONS national population projections available at http://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/nationalpopulationprojections/2013-11-06

[2] Mid-2014 ONS national population projections available at http://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/nationalpopulationprojections/2015-10-29

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