Ursula von der Leyen – 2022 Speech to the International Institute for Strategic Studies Manama Dialogue

The speech made by Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, on 18 November 2022.

Thank you Dr Chipman, dear John

Your Royal Highness,

Your Highnesses,

Excellencies,

Distinguished guests,

Ladies and Gentlemen,

Allow me to thank the IISS for its continued leadership in convening a regional dialogue. It is a pleasure to be back at the Manama Dialogue. And it is so good to see that Bahrain continues to be a driving force for dialogue between countries and cultures. Since my last visit four years ago, Bahrain’s achievements have been remarkable. In difficult times for the world, you have been a voice of wisdom and a voice for engagement.

I have come to Bahrain, I have come to the Gulf, directly from the G20 Summit in Bali. This was the first G20 Summit since Russia invaded Ukraine. And of course, the Summit was dominated by the spillover effects of this atrocious war. Take food security, the Russian blockade of Ukraine’s ports, the deliberate bombing of grain silos and the disruption of Ukraine’s agriculture is having a devastating effect on global food security. Therefore, we welcome yesterday’s prolongation of the Black Sea grain deal for 120 days. However, given the uncertainties, we have to boost even more our alternative routes. That is why Europe just invested an additional billion euros into linking Ukraine’s granaries to our ports by rail, road and rivers. These solidarity lanes have – since the start of the war – taken more than 60% of Ukrainian food exports to the rest of the world. That is more than 17 million tonnes altogether.

The second big topic was energy security. In energy, no one knows better than you in the Gulf that it is all about trust and reliability. For many years, you have supplied energy to the world to support its economic and social development. This has been transformative for many lives and livelihoods. We are in the middle of a difficult and turbulent period in history. Tectonic shifts in the energy landscape are happening right now. Before the war started, Europe was Russia’s biggest energy customer. Today, not even nine months later, this has changed fundamentally. Russia has unilaterally and deliberately cut 80% of its pipeline gas to Europe. But Europe has managed to replace most of it with gas from reliable suppliers. Our storages are full at 95% – and we are safe for this winter. Our challenge will be next year’s winter. At the same time, for emerging and developing countries, the energy crunch is happening right now. They are facing skyrocketing energy expenditures, soaring inflation, and the energy crisis is rapidly leading into an unsustainable debt crisis. Therefore, the world is looking to the key energy suppliers to ensure that these countries that rely on imported fuels and are vulnerable are substituted at reasonable prices.

So much for the immediate crisis. But the tectonic shifts are running deeper. It is climate change that is the pacemaker. Desertification is rapidly swallowing fertile land, devastating floods covered one-third of Pakistan this summer, forest fires raged across Europe, even in Belgium and the UK. There is a reason why the largest economies in the world – the G20 – reaffirmed the Paris climate goals. The clean energy transformation will take place. And the winners will be those who invest now and massively in clean tech and infrastructure. Europe is massively investing into home-grown renewable energy. This is the European Green Deal – our fundamental growth strategy. But in addition, we will also continue to rely on energy imports. Many of the countries in this region have the natural resources for clean energy in abundance – wind, sun, etcetera – and have the know-how on existing and emerging technologies, such as carbon capture and storage. This change is creating opportunities for today’s major exporters to provide the fuels and energy services of tomorrow; to diversify into low-emission fuels such as hydrogen; to show leadership in areas such as CCUS; and as a result of these changes, to diversify also their broader economies and to provide a sustainable basis for long-term growth.

Of course, what is behind these crises in food security and energy security is Russia’s war. Let me give you a European perspective on what is happening on European soil and the global implications. Almost nine months ago, Russian tanks rolled across an internationally recognised border with the declared objective to bring down a legitimate government and establish rule from Moscow. But Russia’s efforts have backfired spectacularly. It has proven to be a colossal strategic mistake.

First of all, the people of Ukraine have fought bravely, with grit and determination, to defend their own freedom; to reaffirm their independence and their right to determine their own future. If Putin was aiming to wipe Ukraine off the map, he achieved the exact opposite: The Nation of Ukraine stands today stronger than ever. Second, if Putin wanted to divide Europe and its partners and allies, he failed yet again. Sweden and Finland will join NATO. Denmark has removed its defence opt-out. And Ukraine is now a candidate to join the European Union. Thirdly, this war is weakening Russia’s economic perspective for decades to come. Our technology sanctions are crippling Russia’s economy for the future. And its industry is in tatters.

From an energy point of view, Russia has lost its biggest customer. Europe is ending its dependency on Russian fossil fuels – for good. From a military point of view, the Russian army has shown its weaknesses and appears overstretched. Its military industrial complex is lacking chips and spare parts to fix their hardware. The equipment Russia is throwing at the frontline is getting older and older. The conscripts, who arrive with it, are barely trained and younger and younger. And from a diplomatic point of view, Russia’s illegal annexation of four Ukrainian regions has been roundly rejected as a sham around the world. It was condemned by 143 countries in the UN General Assembly, including by the overwhelming majority of the Gulf, the Middle East and North Africa. In sum, Putin has achieved a weaker Russia domestically and abroad.

The European Union is united and steadfast in its support to Ukraine. From the very beginning, we have provided a strategic answer. With massive and tailored sanctions; with broad humanitarian aid; with substantial financial support of over EUR 20 billion; and, for the first time ever, the European Union directly financed military assistance of over EUR 3.1 billion.

Ladies and Gentlemen,

My last point is about the international order and how to defend it. There is one recent development that I find very telling. Last January, exactly one month before Russia attacked Ukraine, civilians in Abu Dhabi came under fire of Iran-made Shahed-136 UAVs launched from Yemen. Just a few days ago, the oil tanker ‘Pacific Zircon’ was attacked off the coast of Oman by the very same Iranian drones. And now in Europe too, Russia has launched these very same Iranian drones, time and again, against civilian targets in Ukraine’s cities. These are blatant breaches of humanitarian law and qualify as war crimes. Several Gulf countries have been warning for years about the risk that Iran feeds rogue nations around the world with drones. It took us too long to understand a very simple fact that while we work to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, we must also focus on other forms of weapons proliferation, from drones to ballistic missiles. It is a security risk, not just for the Middle East but for us all.

This is why the European Union has already sanctioned Iranian individuals and entities linked to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard – that are responsible for providing drones to Russia. And we are coordinating with partners and allies to take further sanctions against Iran responding to the proliferation of Iranian drones. By teaming up, Iran and Russia are undermining the basic rules and principles of our global order. And where does this end, if left unchallenged? History shows that this is a recipe for perpetual war. It is a recipe for arms races and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. It is a recipe for constant foreign interference, for never-ending violence and instability. And we simply cannot accept this. And we will not accept this.

Ladies and Gentlemen,

The world needs a stronger security architecture, against the spread of chaos. We know this in Europe and it matters also here in the Gulf. Europe is willing to do its part. We want to strengthen our engagement with the region – both economically but also in terms of security. We want closer cooperation on maritime security – for instance to ensure safe shipping lanes. And I am also convinced that we should work on a coordinated approach to Iran – with a broader focus than nuclear. Gulf security matters to Europe, as Europe’s security matters to the Gulf. Therefore, we will appoint a Special Representative to the Gulf. Let us join forces for our collective security.

Ladies and Gentlemen,

I believe we face a historic opportunity to build new ties between our regions. For our mutual benefit. For today and for the long run. Thank you very much for hosting me, and I look forward to our discussion.