PRESS RELEASE : The Kremlin could never have envisaged how war in Ukraine is developing – UK statement to the OSCE [September 2024]
The press release issued by the Foreign Office on 25 September 2024.
UK military advisor, Nicholas Aucott, says the military situation is markedly different to what many expected two and a half years ago and this is a testament to the bravery and fortitude of the Ukrainian people.
Thank you, Mr Chair. The present situation in the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine is one that the Kremlin could hardly have envisaged when it embarked on its devastating war of aggression.
Russia boasted that Ukraine would be defeated in a three-day lightning war, yet today marks two years and 219 days of this conflict. Ukraine now controls Russian territory in the Kursk Oblast. This is the first time that Russian territory has been held since the Second World War. We should be clear: this is a direct consequence of Russia’s illegal invasion and entirely consistent with Ukraine’s right to self-defence. To try and tackle this situation of its own making, Russia has been launching 50% of its glide bombs at its own territory, and on the neighbouring Sumy region of Ukraine.
Since we met last week, on the evening of 17-18 September Ukraine conducted a successful attack on the Toropets strategic ammunition depot. Renovated in 2018, this was one of Russia’s largest strategic ammunition depots supporting Russia’s operation in Ukraine and housing ammunition of varying calibres, including ammunition procured from the DPRK.
The resulting explosion recorded 2.7 on the Richter scale, equivalent to a mild earthquake. It forced Russia to declare a state of emergency, with the resulting fires 6 km wide and detectable from space. This was followed on 21 September by additional successful strikes on depots again in Toropets, and in Tikhoretsk. These Ukrainian strikes mark significant strategic setbacks for the Kremlin. The level of losses accounts for months of Russian ammunition expenditure rates.
Moreover, Russia continues its attacks on Ukrainian civilian and energy infrastructure in an attempt to try and break the will of the Ukrainian people. Strikes in Ukraine’s central region of Poltava cut power to 20 settlements, whilst in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, an attack on Monday killed at least one person and injured seven, amongst them a 13 year old girl and a 15 year old boy.
The military situation is markedly different to what many expected two and a half years ago and this is a testament to the bravery and fortitude of the Ukrainian people. But it is also critical that Ukraine continues to receive the support of allies and partners, diplomatically and militarily. The Kremlin would like to portray such support as a western conspiracy. But the reality is that the Russian state isolated itself from the moment it instigated an unprovoked, premeditated and barbaric attack against a sovereign democratic state. Furthermore, Russia has contravened international law and misled this Forum completely.
The United Kingdom’s support to Ukraine is ironclad. To date the UK’s total military, economic and humanitarian support for Ukraine amounts to £12.8 billion, which includes £7.8 billion in military support. £3 billion in military aid has been pledged to Ukraine in 2024-25, a £700 million increase on 2023-24.
The gap between Russia’s expectation of a three-day operation and the 943-day reality continues to grow. The Russian state has a clear path to prevent this metric from diverging further. It must cease hostilities and withdraw from Ukraine’s internationally recognised borders. The United Kingdom, alongside its partners, will continue in its enduring support for Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity. Thank you.
