Lord Tebbit – 2016 Parliamentary Question to the HM Treasury

The below Parliamentary question was asked by Lord Tebbit on 2016-05-03.

To ask Her Majesty’s Government, further to the remarks by Lord O’Neill of Gatley on 28 April (HL Deb, col 1244), what provision was made in the Treasury document published on 18 April on the economic efforts of a UK withdrawal from the EU for funding the health, education, welfare and other costs associated with the forecast increase in that document of three million in the population of the UK by 2030.

Lord O’Neill of Gatley

“HM Treasury analysis: the long-term economic impact of EU membership and the alternatives” shows that after 15 years, even with savings from reduced contributions to the EU, receipts would be £20 billion a year lower in the central estimate of the EEA, £36 billion a year lower for the negotiated bilateral agreement and £45 billion a year lower for the WTO alternative. £36 billion is more than a third of the NHS budget and the equivalent of 8p on the basic rate of income tax.

The HMT analysis does not forecast immigration but uses the latest figures from ONS as a modelling assumption. These numbers do not take account of future Government actions to reduce immigration, including the emergency brake on welfare agreed as part of the renegotiation.

The Government is committed to controlling migration by dealing with those who shouldn’t be here, by deporting illegal immigrants and improving the skills of British workers, so we reduce the demand for skilled migrants.

The Prime Minister has re-negotiated the UK’s position within the EU to close back-door routes into the UK and exert greater control over EU migration by tackling the draw of our welfare system.

But net migration remains too high and there is still more work to do.