Lord Stoddart of Swindon – 2015 Parliamentary Question to the HM Treasury
The below Parliamentary question was asked by Lord Stoddart of Swindon on 2015-11-03.
To ask Her Majesty’s Government what are their plans to deal with the increase in the United Kingdom population to 70 million within 12 years and 74.3 million by 2030, as projected by the Office for National Statistics, and what estimate they have made of the cost of those plans.
Lord O’Neill of Gatley
The recent 2015 Office for National Statistics projections predict the United Kingdom population to reach 70 million in 2027. This is consistent with their previous 2013 projections which also predicted the UK population would reach 70 million in 2027. The new projections forecast the population to increase to 71 million by 2030, as did the previous projections.
Population growth does not necessarily cause an equivalent increase in demand for all public services, because at different points in their lives people will use different services. For instance, population increases caused by people living longer than previously, might increase demand for health services but probably would not increase demand for classroom places.
However, as these increases are largely consistent with the previous population projections, they are well covered by existing plans and planning processes. Public services are provided local authorities and central departments. Local Government and Departmental budgets are set in advance through multi-year Spending Reviews. This allows the Government to make decisions on all areas of public spending in the context of projected demand and available resources while ensuring the public finances remain sustainable in the long term. Departments are responsible for deciding how this money is then allocated, subject to strict Treasury rules on the proper management of public funds. This allows money to flow to where it is most needed, given demographic pressures and other considerations.
The independent Office for Budget Responsibility produce 50-year forecasts of the sustainability of the public finances in the biannual Fiscal Sustainability Report. For instance, the most recent report highlighted pressures from growth in health spending, state pension costs, and the costs of long-term social care. In response to these pressures, the Government introduced reforms that will save £500 billion over the next 50 years.
