Lord Green of Deddington – 2016 Parliamentary Question to the HM Treasury

The below Parliamentary question was asked by Lord Green of Deddington on 2016-05-19.

To ask Her Majesty’s Government, further to the Written Answer by Lord O’Neill of Gatley on 6 May (HL7841), what was the actual level of UK GDP estimated in each of the three alternatives studied, and in the case of remaining in the EU.

Lord O’Neill of Gatley

HM Treasury did not produce a forecast of how big the economy would be in 15 years’ time. The analysis of the long-term economic impact of EU membership and the alternatives, provided an assessment of the difference in the size of the economy under the alternatives to EU membership for a given economic forecast. This showed that GDP would be 3.8% lower in an EEA arrangement, 6.2% lower in a negotiated bilateral agreement and 7.5% lower in a WTO arrangement. These are all central estimates.