Liam Byrne – 2014 Parliamentary Question to the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills
The below Parliamentary question was asked by Liam Byrne on 2014-06-11.
To ask the Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills, what projections his Department has made of the future (a) face value and (b) carrying value of the student loan book.
Mr David Willetts
(a) We estimate the cash, or face, value of ICR student loans to follow approximately this profile going forwards.
Value of loan book in real terms
|
2014-15 |
2015-16 |
2016-17 |
2017-18 |
2018-19 |
2019-20 |
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
2022-23 |
2023-24 |
|
£70bn |
£80bn |
£90bn |
£100bn |
£110bn |
£120bn |
£130bn |
£140bn |
£150bn |
£160bn |
|
2024-25 |
2025-26 |
2026-27 |
2027-28 |
2028-29 |
2029-30 |
2030-31 |
2031-32 |
2032-33 |
2033-34 |
|
£170bn |
£180bn |
£190bn |
£200bn |
£210bn |
£220bn |
£230bn |
£240bn |
£250bn |
£260bn |
|
2034-35 |
2035-36 |
2036-37 |
2037-38 |
2038-39 |
2039-40 |
2040-41 |
2041-42 |
2042-43 |
2043-44 |
|
£260bn |
£270bn |
£280bn |
£280bn |
£290bn |
£300bn |
£300bn |
£310bn |
£320bn |
£320bn |
|
2044-45 |
2045-46 |
2046-47 |
2047-48 |
2048-49 |
2049-50 |
||||
|
£330bn |
£330bn |
£330bn |
£330bn |
£330bn |
£330bn |
Value of loan book in nominal terms
|
2014-15 |
2015-16 |
2016-17 |
2017-18 |
2018-19 |
2019-20 |
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
2022-23 |
2023-24 |
|
£70bn |
£80bn |
£100bn |
£110bn |
£130bn |
£150bn |
£170bn |
£190bn |
£210bn |
£230bn |
|
2024-25 |
2025-26 |
2026-27 |
2027-28 |
2028-29 |
2029-30 |
2030-31 |
2031-32 |
2032-33 |
2033-34 |
|
£250bn |
£270bn |
£300bn |
£320bn |
£350bn |
£380bn |
£410bn |
£440bn |
£470bn |
£500bn |
|
2034-35 |
2035-36 |
2036-37 |
2037-38 |
2038-39 |
2039-40 |
2040-41 |
2041-42 |
2042-43 |
2043-44 |
|
£530bn |
£570bn |
£600bn |
£640bn |
£670bn |
£710bn |
£750bn |
£790bn |
£830bn |
£870bn |
|
2044-45 |
2045-46 |
2046-47 |
2047-48 |
2048-49 |
2049-50 |
||||
|
£920bn |
£960bn |
£1,000bn |
£1,030bn |
£1,070bn |
£1,100bn |
These estimates assume that fees will increase in line with inflation from 2016 onwards. These forecasts also take account of the freeing up of student number controls in the Autumn Statement, increases in loan take-up rates, demographic changes over time and updated earnings modelling.
(b) We estimate the current carrying value of the student loan book, which is used in the BIS accounts. However, we do not forecast the future carrying value of the loan book, as this is not required for the purposes of accounting or budgeting. Our estimate of the carrying value for loans when they are issued is based on the RAB charge, which we currently estimate is around 45%.
