Liam Byrne – 2014 Parliamentary Question to the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills
The below Parliamentary question was asked by Liam Byrne on 2014-06-11.
To ask the Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills, what recent estimate he has made of the cash value of the student loan book in each year to 2050 (a) before and (b) after sales of student loans.
Mr David Willetts
(a) We estimate the cash value of ICR student loans to follow approximately this profile going forwards.
Value of loan book in real terms
|
2014-15 |
2015-16 |
2016-17 |
2017-18 |
2018-19 |
2019-20 |
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
2022-23 |
2023-24 |
|
£70bn |
£80bn |
£90bn |
£100bn |
£110bn |
£120bn |
£130bn |
£140bn |
£150bn |
£160bn |
|
2024-25 |
2025-26 |
2026-27 |
2027-28 |
2028-29 |
2029-30 |
2030-31 |
2031-32 |
2032-33 |
2033-34 |
|
£170bn |
£180bn |
£190bn |
£200bn |
£210bn |
£220bn |
£230bn |
£240bn |
£250bn |
£260bn |
|
2034-35 |
2035-36 |
2036-37 |
2037-38 |
2038-39 |
2039-40 |
2040-41 |
2041-42 |
2042-43 |
2043-44 |
|
£260bn |
£270bn |
£280bn |
£280bn |
£290bn |
£300bn |
£300bn |
£310bn |
£320bn |
£320bn |
|
2044-45 |
2045-46 |
2046-47 |
2047-48 |
2048-49 |
2049-50 |
||||
|
£330bn |
£330bn |
£330bn |
£330bn |
£330bn |
£330bn |
Value of loan book in nominal terms
|
2014-15 |
2015-16 |
2016-17 |
2017-18 |
2018-19 |
2019-20 |
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
2022-23 |
2023-24 |
|
£70bn |
£80bn |
£100bn |
£110bn |
£130bn |
£150bn |
£170bn |
£190bn |
£210bn |
£230bn |
|
2024-25 |
2025-26 |
2026-27 |
2027-28 |
2028-29 |
2029-30 |
2030-31 |
2031-32 |
2032-33 |
2033-34 |
|
£250bn |
£270bn |
£300bn |
£320bn |
£350bn |
£380bn |
£410bn |
£440bn |
£470bn |
£500bn |
|
2034-35 |
2035-36 |
2036-37 |
2037-38 |
2038-39 |
2039-40 |
2040-41 |
2041-42 |
2042-43 |
2043-44 |
|
£530bn |
£570bn |
£600bn |
£640bn |
£670bn |
£710bn |
£750bn |
£790bn |
£830bn |
£870bn |
|
2044-45 |
2045-46 |
2046-47 |
2047-48 |
2048-49 |
2049-50 |
||||
|
£920bn |
£960bn |
£1,000bn |
£1,030bn |
£1,070bn |
£1,100bn |
These estimates assume that fees will increase in line with inflation from 2016 onwards. These forecasts also take account of the freeing up of student number controls in the Autumn Statement, increases in loan take-up rates, demographic changes over time and updated earnings modelling.
(b) The government has a stated aim to sell the pre-2012 loan book. However, the exact programme of sales has yet to be determined. Consequently, it is not possible to estimate the yearly value of the student loan book after these sales have taken place.
