Lord Inglewood – 2016 Parliamentary Question to the HM Treasury

The below Parliamentary question was asked by Lord Inglewood on 2016-05-24.

To ask Her Majesty’s Government what calculation they have made of the effect of leaving the EU single market on total UK tax revenue.

Lord O’Neill of Gatley

The Treasury has published rigorous and objective analysis on the long-term economic impact of EU membership and the alternatives in April 2016, and on the immediate economic impact of leaving the EU in May 2016.

From the short-run analysis, in 2017-18 the deterioration in receipts is £17.9 billion in the ‘shock scenario’ and is larger at £31.9 billion in the ‘severe shock scenario’.

The long-term economic analysis assesses the continued membership of the EU against three different alternatives. The analysis shows that after 15 years, even with savings from reduced contributions to the EU, receipts would be £20 billion a year lower in the central estimate of the European Economic Area alternative, £36 billion a year lower for the negotiated bilateral agreement alternative and £45 billion a year lower for the World Trade Organization alternative. These figures are expressed in terms of 2015 GDP in 2015 prices.